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# Why AGI Will Not Happen
- URL: https://yonglun.me/why-agi-will-not-happen-nitebook/
- Published: 2025-12-14T10:31:40.000Z
- Updated: 2026-06-11T23:39:43.000Z
- Description: Tim Dettmers 撰写了题为“为什么通用人工智能（AGI）不会发生” 的文章，主要论述了通用人工智能和超级智能的概念是根本上存在缺陷的幻想，因为它忽视了计算的物理现实。文章强调，计算是实体化的，线性的进步需要指数级的资源投入，并且图形处理器（GPU）的性能提升已接近物理极限。作者认为，扩大规模已不再是提高人工智能性能的足够手段，并指出以 AGI 为目标的美国“前沿”实验室所采取的策略不如中国注重应用和经济扩散的务实方法。总而言之，文章断言，人工智能的未来在于实际应用和渐进式改进，而非通过自我改进达到超越人类智慧的超级智能
- Author: Yonglun
- Tags: notebooklm, #lang-zh

**Tim Dettmers** 撰写了题为[“**为什么通用人工智能（AGI）不会发生**”](https://timdettmers.com/2025/12/10/why-agi-will-not-happen/?ref=yonglun.me) 的文章，主要论述了通用人工智能和超级智能的概念是**根本上存在缺陷的幻想**，因为它**忽视了计算的物理现实**。文章强调，**计算是实体化的**，**线性的进步需要指数级的资源投入**，并且**图形处理器（GPU）的性能提升已接近物理极限**。作者认为，**扩大规模已不再是提高人工智能性能的足够手段**，并指出**以 AGI 为目标的美国“前沿”实验室**所采取的策略不如**中国注重应用和经济扩散**的务实方法。总而言之，文章断言，**人工智能的未来在于实际应用和渐进式改进**，而非通过自我改进达到超越人类智慧的超级智能。

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